CAN WE COMBAT TERROR ? ANNAYLISTS DOUBT...
Modern technology and communications are every day making teerrorists stronger and states less able to combat the problem. Nothing looks like altering that ominous change in the balance of power.
Anybody can today look up the internet to learn how to make a lethal bomb from easily accessible materials like fertiliser and fuel oil. Automatic weapons are easily available in many countries. Satellite phones, GPS and wireless internet have given individuals better communications than were once available to super-power armies. Militants can keep govt. forces at bay for decades without any foreign support ( as Sri Lanka ).
The indian media are chock full of suggestions of how the Mumbai attack could have been prevented. We all agree with the proposed solutions--- better intelligence, training and equipment---- but still doubt if they will stop all attacks by motivated terrorists willing to die. Not even the most sophisticated super-efficient intelligence systems can stop determined terrorists. Israeli experience proves that conclusively.
Israel, with all its high technology and formidable intelligence and counter-terrorist agencies, has been unable to stop suicide attacks, and is now building a wall along its entire border to limit the incidence of attacks. This is not an option for India, which has porous borders thru which lakhs of migrants come both legally from Nepal and illegally from ( Bangladesh and may be Pakistan ). It is not like US, which is lucky enough to be separated from terrorist hotspots by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
India is bang inside the pan-islamic terrorist zone, and some of its own citizens are part of that pan-islamic network. So, like it or not, we are condemned to live with terrorism till such time as Islamic terrorism ceases to attract adherents.
Really, if you have a wide intelligence network, you will get hundred warnings every day of terrorist plots, suspicious behaviour and possible attacks. Some will be fantasies of thousands of ports of possible attack. In the event of any attack, the first line of defence, even in super-efficient states, is the police. Indian police is woefully under-equipped and under-trained. But can the even the best armed police stop suicidal fanatics with AK-47s, willing to die rather than surrender ?
If indeed the govt. rushes out commandos and troops after every intelligence alert, real terrorists will soon amuse themselves by sending a thousand false alarms. Al Queda says that its strategy is to exhaust the west financially while deploying very few of its own resources. It can easily exhaust India's resources too.
Even if a country develops good intelligence and early warning systems, these can easily be combated by terrorists. Pan-islamic groups can easily send alarms via the internet and telephone about a dozen false landing sites to confuse the authorities.
Can nothing be done ? Well, improved intelligence and security systems, improved training and equipment, will certainly be a help. Some people point to the US as a good example. But, unlike the US , India is bang inside the pan-islamic zone, rather like Israel. So, like Israel, India can at best diminish but not stop all attacks.
In sum, the future looks grim. Theorists will say the solution is to change the mind-set of potential terrorists. Alas, that is beyond the control of India. Pan-islamism has international roots. Besides, the march of technology relentlessly increases the power of non-state actors to inflict ever-more damage. But even the best efforts, annaylists doubt, if we can stop deteremined suicidal fanatics.
Anybody can today look up the internet to learn how to make a lethal bomb from easily accessible materials like fertiliser and fuel oil. Automatic weapons are easily available in many countries. Satellite phones, GPS and wireless internet have given individuals better communications than were once available to super-power armies. Militants can keep govt. forces at bay for decades without any foreign support ( as Sri Lanka ).
The indian media are chock full of suggestions of how the Mumbai attack could have been prevented. We all agree with the proposed solutions--- better intelligence, training and equipment---- but still doubt if they will stop all attacks by motivated terrorists willing to die. Not even the most sophisticated super-efficient intelligence systems can stop determined terrorists. Israeli experience proves that conclusively.
Israel, with all its high technology and formidable intelligence and counter-terrorist agencies, has been unable to stop suicide attacks, and is now building a wall along its entire border to limit the incidence of attacks. This is not an option for India, which has porous borders thru which lakhs of migrants come both legally from Nepal and illegally from ( Bangladesh and may be Pakistan ). It is not like US, which is lucky enough to be separated from terrorist hotspots by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
India is bang inside the pan-islamic terrorist zone, and some of its own citizens are part of that pan-islamic network. So, like it or not, we are condemned to live with terrorism till such time as Islamic terrorism ceases to attract adherents.
Really, if you have a wide intelligence network, you will get hundred warnings every day of terrorist plots, suspicious behaviour and possible attacks. Some will be fantasies of thousands of ports of possible attack. In the event of any attack, the first line of defence, even in super-efficient states, is the police. Indian police is woefully under-equipped and under-trained. But can the even the best armed police stop suicidal fanatics with AK-47s, willing to die rather than surrender ?
If indeed the govt. rushes out commandos and troops after every intelligence alert, real terrorists will soon amuse themselves by sending a thousand false alarms. Al Queda says that its strategy is to exhaust the west financially while deploying very few of its own resources. It can easily exhaust India's resources too.
Even if a country develops good intelligence and early warning systems, these can easily be combated by terrorists. Pan-islamic groups can easily send alarms via the internet and telephone about a dozen false landing sites to confuse the authorities.
Can nothing be done ? Well, improved intelligence and security systems, improved training and equipment, will certainly be a help. Some people point to the US as a good example. But, unlike the US , India is bang inside the pan-islamic zone, rather like Israel. So, like Israel, India can at best diminish but not stop all attacks.
In sum, the future looks grim. Theorists will say the solution is to change the mind-set of potential terrorists. Alas, that is beyond the control of India. Pan-islamism has international roots. Besides, the march of technology relentlessly increases the power of non-state actors to inflict ever-more damage. But even the best efforts, annaylists doubt, if we can stop deteremined suicidal fanatics.
posted by vaneet kundra at
Sunday, December 14, 2008
2 Comments:
do you mean terror attacks, can not stop ? what to we do.
Dear Deepak,
Thanks. if we think with a cool head and not out of anger, experts have a point, which i agree to some extent. The fault lies within us. If you have house, where people keep on fighting all the time, the ousiders always take advantage of it. All of us indians are to be blamed equally. We are not gujaraties, madrasis, punjabies etc. First and foremost, we are all indians. We indians have lost national character and national values. Take the case of Japan and Germany. They were totally destroyed in World War-2 but they resurrected themselves to the top, because they have national character and nationalism in them. We indians do not have national character. If an IAS Officer, a policemen, a politician etc. and all of us put our national character first and foremost and do not indulge in corruption, i think we can fight terror. corruption and terror are co-related. I will write about that shortly.
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